Protection

It's nice to know that some people have the safety of the kingdom in mind. I see today that the Ravens at the Tower have been moved indoors to keep them safe from avian 'flu.

Meanwhile EU farming ministers are trying to decide whether to vaccinate poultry to "protect" them from the virus. This is something I have a problem with. On the surface, I suppose it does appear that vaccination would be sensible. No one wants to see sick birds especially when the disease they're carrying could, potentially, be passed on to any human who comes into direct contact. That is, however, missing a fundamental point.

Inoculation does NOT prevent infection. All it does is allow the bird's immune system to suppress the virus enough to stop it becoming symptomatic. That's good news (in the short term) for poultry farmers as they can continue to sell their apparently disease-free birds. In terms of stopping (or slowing) this strain from mutating into a deadly pandemic-style air-borne disease, to the best of my knowledge it does diddly-squat! In fact, it could make such a mutation more likely as it keeps the virus floating around in the birds system. Meanwhile it runs around with the potential to catch a human 'flu virus and make that crucial cross-match.

While all this goes on some elements of the media are becoming more rabid in their calls for anything they perceive as protection (such as inoculation) and the public are left bamboozled. Most of all they are left with no clear idea of the realities of risk and probability - that there is and can be no such thing as zero risk.

It remains to be seen whether the EU ministers will put short-term poultry profit above longer-term human health, but I'm not hopeful.